Exports Expected to Reach $57 Billion

September 4, 2001

USDA expects agricultural exports for fiscal year 2002 to reach $57 billion, $3.5 billion more than fiscal 2001. If realized, fiscal 2002 exports would be the highest since 1997 and would represent three straight years of sustained agricultural export growth.

Imports, projected at $39 billion for fiscal 2002, remain relatively flat, only $500 million over the latest fiscal 2001 estimate. The greater gain in exports next year will boost the U.S. agricultural trade surplus to $18 billion, the highest since fiscal 1997. The forecast for U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 2001 remains at $53.5 billion.

Wheat and corn exports are projected to make up most of the overall increase in agricultural trade. U.S. wheat shipments will benefit from smaller exportable supplies in Canada and the European Union, while corn projections show less competition from China. Other commodities expected to see an increase in exports include soybeans, soybean oil, cotton, poultry meat, fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts. For example, poultry meat exports are projected at a record 3.2 million tons valued at $2.2 billion, representing a 100,000-ton increase from the current fiscal 2001 forecast because of expected strong sales to Russia, China, and Mexico.

The summary and full report of USDA's outlook for U.S. agricultural exports may be accessed from the ERS web site http://www.ers.usda.gov. The next quarterly report will be issued on Nov. 30.