October 19, 2000

The Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees an end to the recent string of record warm winters with a return to "normal" winter patterns for the 2000-01 season. NOAA Administrator D. James Baker said, "With La Niña and El Niño out of the way, normal (defined as the period 1961-1990) winter weather has a chance to return to the U.S. this year."

NOAA's National Weather Service issued its official outlook for winter 2000-01, and according to Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. and National Weather Service Director Jack Kelly, "As in most normal years, from New England to the Carolinas, cold weather will be part of your routine this winter. In Florida, the enhanced likelihood of warmer-than-normal-temperatures could be punctuated by cold air outbreaks, or ‘Florida Freezes'."

Kelly said, "Americans must be careful this winter and prepare for a little bit of everything." He added a reminder about the importance of NOAA Weather Radio, "We expect considerable swings in temperature and precipitation. Having the latest weather reports and warnings from NOAA Weather Radio will remain crucial this winter."

In the Northeast a polar jet stream and tropical jet stream will duel for supremacy, and the polar stream will win, bringing a greater chance of more snow along the spine of the Appalachians from New England to the Carolinas and points east, including Washington, DC, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and DC could see average temperatures four degrees Fahrenheit colder than the last three winters.

Look for normal conditions in the Plains states (North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa) and Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Missouri). Cold air outbreaks will potentially lead to more days below zero and heavier lake-effect snow in the western portions of Pennsylvania and New York, northern Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and northeastern Minnesota. Minneapolis is expected to have average temperatures six degrees below the last three winters, while Chicago could see average temperatures five degrees lower;

In the Southeast, temperatures will likely be warmer than normal but slightly cooler than the last three years, with all Gulf Coast states (except Florida) favored to receive more precipitation than usual. Areas in the West and Southwest, for example California and Nevada, will experience warmer-than normal temperatures;

The Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) will experience a few more heavy rain events but near normal precipitation for the winter season as a whole; and Seattle could see average temperatures one degree below the last three winters. Alaska can expect near normal temperatures and precipitation this winter.

The 2000-01 winter outlook will be updated on the Web next on Nov. 16. For more information on climate prediction visit: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov.