November 20, 2000

Americans will have a little more to be thankful for this Thanksgiving Day, as the price of the traditional Thanksgiving Day dinner has declined, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF).

In its annual survey of the price of basic items found on the Thanksgiving Day dinner table, the average cost of this year's feast for 10 is $32.37, a $1.46 drop from last year's $33.83 average. It marks the first drop in average price for the Thanksgiving Day dinner since 1991.

The holiday feast includes turkey, cranberries, pumpkin pie and all the trimmings.

"Each year, thanks to the efforts of America's food producers, Americans are able to sit down to an abundant, affordable and safe Thanksgiving Day dinner," said AFBF President Bob Stallman. "America's farmers and ranchers have experienced three years of economic uncertainty, low commodity prices and numerous weather disasters. Yet, their professionalism and dedication to producing the world's safest food supply makes this yearly feast possible.

"We should all pause and be thankful for the many blessings our nation enjoys. And, as we sit down with our families to this traditional meal, it is appropriate to remember that it all starts on America's farmland."

The AFBF shopping list includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a relish tray of carrots and celery, pumpkin pie with whipped cream and beverages of coffee or milk.

The cost of a 16-pound turkey, at $12.52, or roughly 78 cents per pound, was the largest contributor to the overall drop in the cost of Thanksgiving dinner. Turkey prices dropped $1.71 from last year's average.

Most items on the survey fell in average price. Other decreases include: gallon of whole milk, $2.56, down 39 cents; sweet potatoes, $1.94 per three-pound bag, down 23 cents; a 14-ounce package of cubed stuffing, $2.14, down 16 cents; a 12-ounce package of fresh cranberries, $1.54, down 16 cents; a 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix, $1.54, down 7 cents; a 16-ounce package of frozen green peas, $1.06, down 7 cents; a half-pint carton of whipping cream, $1.11, down 4 cents; and a 12-ounce package of brown-and-serve rolls, $1.36, down 1 cent. And, a combined pound of celery and carrots, used for a relish tray, dropped 5 cents to 75 cents.

A combined group of miscellaneous items, including coffee and ingredients necessary to prepare the meal (onions, eggs, sugar, flour, evaporated milk and butter), cost $2.73, a 27-cent drop from last year's average.

The decline in the overall average of the Thanksgiving Day dinner survey does not surprise Joe Miller, an economist with AFBF. He said the decline in prices across the survey reflects large supplies in pretty much all commodities. It also mirrors the rock-bottom farm prices producers have faced over the past few years.

"There is typically a lag between consumer prices and what the farmers have been seeing," said Miller. "We've seen low prices at the farm level for two or three years now. Those dropping prices are just now starting to reach the retail level.

"What we are also seeing is a fairly large supply of pretty much every commodity produced in this country. It doesn't matter which commodity you talk about. Almost all have low prices, from cranberries to turkeys to grains. Just about everything has low prices."

A package of two nine-inch pie shells increased 12 cents to $1.54.

The decrease in this year's average price breaks a string of seven surveys when the price went up. This year's average is only $3.63 higher than the inaugural 1986 survey price of $28.74.

Prices of past surveys include: 1999 - $33.83; 1998 - $33.09; 1997 - $31.75; 1996 - $31.66; 1995 - $29.64; 1994 - $28.40; 1993 - $27.49; 1992 - 26.39; 1991 - $25.95; 1990 - $28.85; 1989 - $24.70; 1988 - $26.61; 1987 - 24.51; 1986 - $28.74.

The Farm Bureau Thanksgiving Dinner Survey is unscientific, but prices reflect actual trends across the nation. Bargain shoppers in all areas should be able to purchase these items at a price comparable to the Farm Bureau survey. Supermarkets in some areas are increasingly offering ready-to-eat Thanksgiving meals for up to 10 people, with all the trimmings, for approximately $40.

One hundred twenty-one shoppers from 30 states participated in this year's Thanksgiving dinner price survey. The results are based on the best in-store price, excluding special coupon deals and purchase requirements. Farm Bureau's survey menu has remained constant since 1986 to allow for valid price comparisons.