Feed Grain Supply Declines from October

November 15, 2000

Feed grain production this year should total 276 million metric tons, 1% less than a month ago but 5% more than 1999, according to USDA. Production of all feed grains is down. Feed grain supply in 2000/01 is forecast at 328 million tons, also down 1% from last month but up 3% from 1999-2000. Supplies are greater than last year because of larger production.

Total feed grain use is expected to total 280 million tons, unchanged from last month and 12 million more than from 1999-2000. This month, lower production and unchanged use resulted in lower forecast stocks from last month and last year. On a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2000-01 is up 300,000 from last month and down 290,000 tons from last year.

Corn production in 2000 is forecast at 10 billion bushels, 138 million less than October but 617 million more than last year. The average corn yield is forecast at 137.7 bushels per acre compared with last month's 139.6 bushels and the actual 1999 yield of 133.8 bushels. This year's yield is the second highest ever, trailing only the 138.6 bushels per acre in 1994. The yield decline resulted from declines in 11 states, including all of the largest producing states.

Forecast ending stocks in 2000-01 are 1.7 billion bushels, down 8% from last month and down 2% from 1999-2000. Corn use in 2000/01 is unchanged from last month. With decreased corn production in 2000-01 leading to lower ending stocks, prices are stronger. The forecast price for 2000/01 is $1.70-$2.10 per bushel, up from last months $1.65-$2.05. In 1999-2000, the season-average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.80.

Sorghum production in 2000 is forecast at 463 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from last month because of lower yields. Production is down 22% from 1999's 595 million bushels. Yields are forecast at 60.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month and 9.3 bushels below last year.

The entire feed grain report is available on the Internet at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/field/fds-bb/2000/fds1100.asc.