Wheat Supply Reduced from Earlier Report

November 15, 2000

U.S. wheat production is expected to total 2.2 billion bushels this year, 16 million less than the earlier forecast released in the small grains 2000 summary Sept. 29. The wheat yield is forecast at 41.9 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushel from last month and 1.3 bushels below the record established in 1998. Imports are forecast at 95 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.

Downward adjustments were made for hard red spring (HRS) wheat imports of 3 million and 2 million for durum. The U.S. wheat supply in 2000-01 is now forecast at 3.3 billion bushels, down 21 million from last month and 71 million below 1999-2000.

Total U.S. exports are expected to total 1.1 billion bushels, 25 million fewer than last month. Domestic use is unchanged this month. The decline in the export forecast more than offset the decline in production and imports, and ending stocks are now forecast to hit 892 million bushels, 4 million more than a month earlier but 58 million fewer than last year.

Wheat prices were under significant pressure during the harvest season due to the large supplies and slow export pace. Ending stocks are still projected to be large next spring, but weather problems have plagued the Southern Plains this fall. The planting delays have kept cash and futures markets on edge recently, and the preliminary farm price for all wheat was up to $2.70 per bushel in October, 26 cents more than the September farm price. The season-average price received by farmers is now projected between $2.45 and $2.75 per bushel, up 10 cents on the low end of the range from a month earlier.

The entire report is available on the Internet at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/field/whs-bb/2000/whs1100.asc.