Russia, Ukraine Have Smaller Grain Crops

May 14, 2002

USDA is projecting Russia's total grain production for 2002-03 at 74.6 million tons compared with 85 million in 2001-02. The total includes 41 million tons of wheat, 16.0 million of barley, 6 million rye, 7 million oats, 1.4 million corn, 600,000 tons millet, 300,000 rice, and 2.2 million pulses and miscellaneous grains.

While this marks a significant decline from last year's bumper crop, current crop conditions generally are favorable and estimated yield and production for 2002-03 are above average. Ukraine's grain production for 2002-03 is forecast at 35.3 million tons compared with 39.6 million in 2001-02. That total includes 18.5 million wheat, 9 million barley, 3.7 million corn, 1.6 million rye, 1 million oats, and 1.5 million pulses and miscellaneous grains.

As in Russia, conditions have been generally favorable but not as good as last year. Winter-crop conditions improved over the course of the winter and early spring, following fall dryness that hampered germination and establishment in southern and eastern Ukraine.

In southern Russia, where roughly half the country's winter wheat is grown, winter grain conditions are arguably as good as last year, when yield in the Southern District reached a seven-year high. An unusually warm March triggered an early resumption of vegetative growth for winter grains and enabled farmers to get an early start on spring grain planting. In southern, eastern and central Ukraine, precipitation has been about average (and above average in the west) but not as abundant as last spring's rainfall.

As in Russia, winter crops in Ukraine benefited from warm March weather. Although cooler April weather slowed crop development, winter grains throughout Russia and Ukraine had reached the jointing (stem elongation) stage by May 1, only slightly behind last year's rapid development.