Oilseed Production to Increase, Exports, too

May 16, 2000

Oilseed production in 2000-01 should increase 9.6 million tons, nearly 12%, to a record 91.6 million tons, says USDA. Soybean production will account for most of that increase, rising 12% to a record 80.4 million tons. Soybean exports should increase to 26.4 million tons with ending stocks next year projected to reach 13.5 million, a 63% increase.

Soybean production is based on record intended plantings and a trend yield of 40 bushels per acre.

In South America, with the soybean harvest almost complete, Brazil’s production is expected to increase by 500,000 tons to 31 million, due to yields that are better than previously thought in the areas of Mato Grosso, Goias and Parana.

Brazil’s soybean exports also are increased in USDA’s latest report to 9.3 million tons, a record for Brazil, due mostly to increased imports by China. Argentina’s soybean export expectation is increased by 100,000 tons to 4.1 million, also a new record that reflects strong demand and low prices.

The 1999-2000 marketing season for China should set a new record for soybean and rapeseed imports. Soybean imports should reach 5.9 million tons, 600,000 more than earlier projected, and rapeseed imports should reach 3.4 million tons, unchanged from the last forecast by USDA.

For India, the rapeseed production expectation is reduced by 400,000 tons from last month to 5.3 million tons due to drought-reduced yields. The monthly pace of vegetable oil imports continues to be strong "and will secure India’s position as the largest importer of edible oils this year," USDA says.