Corn Production, Exports to Increase

May 16, 2000

U.S. corn production could increase nearly 8 million tons this year with exports expected to reach 48.5 million tons, 2.5 million more than 1999-2000. That still means carryover stocks in 2001 would increase by 5.1 million tons. Prices should be lower.

Sorghum exports are expected to remain strong as Mexico’s imports should continue at last year’s pace, says USDA. China’s corn exports are increased in the latest report by 800,000 tons to 9.5 million from 1999-2000 as a near record crop and stagnating domestic use force corn into export channels.

Lower European Union prices from the Agenda 2000 reforms and a weak currency could create the conditions necessary for the EU to export barley without subsidies, according to the USDA report. Consequently, exports should increase 1 million tons to a new record 10.5 million tons as demand continues to skyrocket.

On the import side, overall Asian demand should decline slightly in 2000-01. Lower feed needs from the outbreak of foot and mouth disease in South Korea should mean fewer corn imports. Japan’s corn imports should decline a bit as feed needs contract in response to expanding meat imports.

Malaysia should import more corn to fuel an expanding domestic poultry industry that is recovering from a disease outbreak. Taiwan is expected to have fairly constant consumption and therefore steady import needs, and China should import more barley to meet the demands of an expanding beer industry.

Middle East and North Africa barley imports are expected to increase nearly 14% from 1999-2000 levels as drought continues to reduce grain production. Egypt’s corn imports should increase 500,000 tons to 4.5 million as the poultry industry there expands.