USDA's prospective plantings report, to be released Wednesday (March 31) is likely to show spring wheat plantings lower than a year earlier.  In a separate report prepared before the plantings report, the department projects that plantings will decline "due to more favorable returns from competing crops such as soybeans and minor oilseeds."

Winter wheat plantings last fall for the 1999 crop declined 7% from a year earlier to the lowest level since 1972.  Lower prices and unfavorable planting conditions, especially in the Southern Plains, contributed to the lower winter wheat acreage.

"If the average wheat yield in 1999 equals the average for the last three years," say USDA economists, "wheat production could decline about 15% in 1999-2000 (June-May)."  Larger beginning stocks, however, will partially offset the lower crops.

Total use should increase as larger exports more than offset the smaller feed and residual use.  Endings stocks will decline but remain "relatively large."

The average farm price will increase, the report continues, but remain at a level less than $3 per bushel again in 1999-2000.

U.S. exports in 1998-99 should increase only 10 million bushels or 1% from the previous marketing season from the 1997-98 total.  "Another year of disappointing exports is projected because of strong competition and lower global imports," says USDA.

Slower than expected food aid shipments to Russia and other needy countries have lowered the export projection in recent months.  Some of the planned donations will not be shipped until the 1999-2000 marketing year that begins in June.

The statistics and forecast are included in USDA's wheat yearbook, due to be available around mid-April.