Meat Exports Will Decline for First Time Since 1985

June 20, 2002

Total calendar 2002 U.S. meat exports are expected to decline year-to-year for the first time since 1985, according to USDA, due primarily to fewer poultry exports which currently are forecast to decline 11% from the previous year's record level. Total U.S. meat exports are anticipated to recover in 2003, but are still forecast slightly below the 2001 record level.

U.S. poultry exports for 2002 are projected at 2.5 million tons, an 11% decline from the record level of the previous year (2.8 million tons). Poultry exports are mostly comprised of broiler parts exports.

Declining export prospects are mainly attributed to the extended trade disruptions with Russia, the largest market for U.S. broilers. In addition, lower than expected exports to China and Hong Kong have contributed to the decline in export projections. For 2003, poultry exports are forecast at just less than 2.8 million tons.

U.S. beef exports for 2002 are projected at 1 million tons. U.S. beef exports have remained between 1 and 1.1 million tons since 1999, reaching record levels in 2000.

The outbreak of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in Japan, the United States' largest beef export market, in September significantly has reduced demand for beef into early 2002.

Increased demand for less expensive pork and poultry cuts by Japan is expected to also constrain beef exports to that market in 2002. However, for 2003, beef exports are forecast to increase to 1.1 million tons, as exports to Korea and Mexico remain strong.

U.S. pork exports for 2002 are projected at 674,000 tons, a 5% decline from the record level set the previous year. During 2001, the United States exported 709,000 tons, on expanded shipments to Japan and Mexico. In Japan, the U.S. was able to capitalize on the EU's temporary market absence due to foot and mouth disease.

Pork exports for 2003 are forecast to increase from the previous year, nearly reaching 2001 record levels. U.S. pork exports are facing increasing competition as the EU re-establishes its international market presence and Brazil continues to broaden its export base, especially to Russia.