USDA Issues Crop Production Expectations

July 17, 2000

U.S. feed grain production in 2000 is projected at 278 million metric tons, up 7 million from a month ago and up 14 million from 1999, according to USDA. The June 30 Acreage report showed planted acres increased from earlier intentions for corn and oats, while sorghum and barley acres declined. The projection for 2000 corn production was raised 3% from last month because of the increased estimate of harvested acres. As of July 9, 74% of the corn crop was rated good or excellent, down from 78 percent last year.

The 2000 U.S. wheat crop is forecast at 2,243 million bushels, up 31 million from last month but down 60 million bushels from 1999. The July production estimate was slightly above the average of pre-release trade guesses. Reported beginning stocks for 2000/01 are up 33 million bushels from the June projection, and they are 4 million above a year earlier. The larger beginning stocks and this month's increase in production raise the U.S. wheat supply for 2000/01 to 3,293 million bushels, only 49 million bushels below last year's burdensome level.

USDA's June acreage report indicated U.S. producers have planted nearly 15.6 million acres of cotton this season. The revised cotton area is nearly identical to planting intentions reported in March but nearly 700,000 acres (5%) more than 1999. The increase from last season is attributable to cotton's favorable relative net returns over competing crops and improved planting conditions this season in many parts of the cotton belt.

Based on USDA's June Acreage report, U.S. farmers planted 74.5 million acres of soybeans for 2000. Stronger corn prices and optimal planting conditions this spring limited the expansion of soybean area and planted acres were 370,000 fewer than March intentions. However, this level would still represent a 1% increase from last year's record plantings. Nearly all of the expansion is in the Northern Plains and Lake States where crop rotations are still adjusting to incorporate more soybeans.

The 2000-01 U.S. rice crop is projected at 193.5 million cwt, down 6.5 million from last month's projection--a result of smaller plantings--and 8% less than the record crop of a year earlier. USDA's June Acreage reported plantings at 3.27 million acres, down 125,000 from the March intentions. In contrast, average yield was raised 28 pounds per acre to 5,963 based on shifts in planted area by state and grain type. USDA will report its first survey-based yield estimate in August.