Weather Not Factored into USDA Report

July 11, 2002

In the latest crop report issued by USDA, higher corn acreage is expected this growing season, but that does not take into account the heat wave currently pounding the Midwest, said National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) Director of Production and Marketing Paul Bertels.

"The USDA report states this year's corn acreage planted is up 4% over last year," he said, "and estimated acreage harvested is up almost 5%. But higher acreage doesn't necessarily equate to higher production. USDA hasn't taken into account the weather we've seen so far this year."

Across the nation this season weather has run the gamut of extremes. The season started with floods in the Midwest. Now that region is suffering through a dry spell that does not appear to be ending anytime soon. Dry weather has been the hallmark in Colorado and recent wildfires haven't helped the situation, and the state of Texas is only now starting to recover from floods resulting from 30 inches of rain falling over a five-day span, notes the NCGA.

Bertels said if one takes into account a minor adjustment in average yields, considering possible damage brought by weather, the size of the crop changes dramatically. "For example, if you use last year's yield average of 138 bushels per acre, we could see a 9.96 billion bushel crop. When added to this year's carry-out of 1.7 billion bushels, that gives us a supply of 11.6 billion bushels.

"But," he continued, "if you factor in the weather, you're obviously going to see a lower yield. If we take the five-year average yields and reduce them by a modest 5%, the national average drops to 127 bushels per acre, which would drop production to 9.2 billion bushels."

Although it is still too early to accurately project yields, Bertels said farmers and the market need to begin to look critically at the 2002 crop. "Even relatively small deviations in average yields can have a tremendous impact of total supply and, ultimately, corn prices."