Exports Remain at $53 Billion

February 23, 2001

USDA predicts agricultural exports for fiscal 2001 will total $53 billion, the same as forecast in November and 4% more than fiscal 2000. Imports also are unchanged from the November estimate of $40 billion, a 3% increase over 2000.

Offsetting weaker bulk commodity exports, horticultural and poultry product exports are stronger than previously forecast, helped by strong demand and expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar. At $11.3 billion, horticultural exports are forecast at a record-high, with especially strong sales to Canada and Mexico. Prospects for poultry exports have improved with strong sales to Russia and several other countries.

However, since November, export competition for bulk commodities is forecast stronger than earlier anticipated, and prospective economic growth has weakened somewhat, particularly in the United States and Japan. Forecast bulk export volume is reduced to 117.7 million tons, 4% below November, but still 2% more than 2000.

Increased competition has reduced the U.S. corn export forecast, as China is now expected to continue to provide corn export subsidies this year. Also, Argentina's corn exports have been raised substantially since November. Anticipated export competition in soybeans from Argentina and Brazil has also increased since November. And, weaker economic growth is limiting cotton demand.