UN Report Paints Gloomy Global Outlook

February 20, 2001

Regional changes in climate already have affected physical and biological systems in many parts of the world because of global warming, according to a United Nations report. Examples include shrinking glaciers, thawing permafrost, late freezes and early break-ups of ice on rivers and lakes, lengthening growing seasons, shifts of plant and animal ranges, some plant and animal population declines. And it's only going to get worse.

Natural systems at risk include glaciers, coral reefs and atolls, mangroves, boreal and tropical forests, polar and alpine ecosystems, prairie wetlands and remnant native grasslands. "It is well established that the geographical extent of the damage and loss and the number of systems affected will increase with the magnitude and rate of climate change," the report says.

Water resources, agriculture and food security, fisheries, energy and industry, insurance and other financial services and human health all are at risk to climate change. More specifically, a general reduction in potential crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions is in store for most areas where temperatures are expected to increase.

More malaria, cholera and heat stress deaths are expected with a widespread risk of flooding for many areas from more precipitation and higher seas. "The vulnerability of human societies and natural systems to climate extremes is demonstrated by the damage, hardship and death caused by events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, avalanches and windstorms," according to the report, a 1,000-page effort by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which links hundreds of scientists around the world who have been studying the warming problem since 1990.

And the full range of "plausible scenarios has not yet been evaluated." Even if world societies decide to try to adapt, some adverse impacts can be reduced and beneficial impacts enhanced, but costs will be incurred and not all damages will be prevented.

A summary of the report is available on the Internet at http://www.usgcrp.gov/ipcc/wg2spm.pdf.