Ag Outlook Looks at China, World Meat Trade

February 23, 2000

USDA has issued the summary of its latest Agricultural Outlook (AO ), and it predicts net farm income would be $1.7 billion more than baseline projections in 2005, if China is part of the World Trade Organization (WTO). In other articles, the AO looks at railroads' "urge to merge" and the world meat trade.

The Summary Report is available. Printed copies of the outlook will be available in about two weeks. The full text will be available electronically later today.

U.S. exports of grains, oilseeds and related products, and cotton would be $1.6 billion greater than projected baseline levels in 2005 with additional gains for poultry, pork, beef, citrus, other fruits, vegetables, tree nuts and forest and fish products, with the addition of China to the WTO.

A proposed merger between Burlington Northern Santa Fe and Canadian National would create North America' s largest railroad, stretching 50,000 miles from Nova Scotia to Los angeles and from the Gulf of Mexico to British Columbia.

For agriculture, the implications of the merger include a potential to affect the relative trade advantages of U.S. and Canadian producers.

Forces driving the growth in world meat trade since the mid-1980s are still at work, shaping trade patterns, says another AO article. Since 1985, global meat trade has advanced because of significant reductions in trade barriers, notably the relaxation of barriers by Japan and South Korea, regional trade agreements among countries and the opening of new poultry markets in Russia and China.

Other AO articles include pork producers benefitting from a declining hog inventory and an economy that is fueling demand for meat products; 200 years of U.S. farm policy; how premium discounts have increased crop and revenue insurance coverage, and why U.S. tomato acreage may decline 10-20% this year.