USDA Forecasts $51.5 Billion in Agricultural Exports

August 31, 2000

Continued strong world economic growth and resulting increases in global imports will push the projected value of U.S. agricultural exports up $1 billion to $51.5 billion in fiscal 2001. Increases are forecast for cotton and horticultural products. Prices, particularly for bulk commodities, are expected to remain relatively low, limiting gains in export value.

Most of the gain in export value will result from anticipated larger export volume. Expected 2001 bulk export volume is up 9.5 million tons from a year earlier to 121.9 million, the largest since fiscal 1995. Corn accounts for two-thirds of the projected total gain, with a strong increase also forecast for wheat.

The projected continued increase in U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 2001 is a modest gain to $39.5 billion. This reflects slower projected 2001 growth of the U.S. economy and higher domestic supplies of many commodities.

The strong dollar will help hold import values down. Most of the import growth is attributed to the major horticultural products--fruits, vegetables, and wine and malt beverages. With exports expected to rise faster than imports for the first time since 1996, the agricultural trade surplus is forecast to increase.

For the full report, go to the Internet at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/trade/aes-bb/2000/aes27s.asc