The $38.8 billion cumulative U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 2000 are $1.3 billion more than in the first nine months of 1999, USDA reports. However, the trade surplus to date is barely above 1999's $8.8 billion, because imports so far are about $1.3 billion ahead of 1999. The export gain in June is only 1% over the value reported for May.

Total bulk commodity export value for June is the lowest in the past year, a 7% decline from May. Continued low prices and foreign export competition are largely responsible, according to USDA.

The $3.4-billion of corn exports thus far in 2000 is 8% less than 1999, following a 4.4% decline in June from May. Corn volume to date is 2 million tons, or more than 5% less than 1999. Volume is significantly lower to Mexico, Venezuela, Egypt,and China. Depressed corn prices reflect an excess of exportable production over import demand. Argentina and especially China have significantly increased corn exports.

Year-to-date wheat exports of $2.4 billion declined $224 million from 1999, despite no change in volume shipped. Low wheat prices, almost half of 1996 prices, are responsible for the much-reduced export earnings. Canada, Argentina, Australia, and the European Union (EU) have increased exports of wheat and wheat flour. The largest U.S. export volume declines are to China, Russia, Venezuela, South Korea, Nigeria, and Indonesia. Many of these countries' exchange rates have depreciated against the dollar, reducing their purchasing power.

More than $4.2 billion of soybean exports have been shipped through June 2000, $328 million more than in fiscal 1999. Volume shipped likewise increased 3.1 million from 1999 to a cumulative 21.6 million tons. Soybean prices edged up a bit over 1999 prices but remain 30% below the high 1996 prices. The largest shipments so far this year are to China and the EU. China dramatically increased soybean imports for processing into meal and oil. Brazil continues to increase soybean exports in competition with the United States.

Cotton exports of $1.4 billion in fiscal 2000 increased $364 million from 1999 as volume shipped jumped 66% to $1.2 million tons. Cotton prices remain depressed but have pushed sales to Turkey, East Asia and Southeast Asia far ahead of 1999. The United States' largest market, Mexico, has imported 260,000 tons of cotton thus far in 2000, a 50,000-ton gain from 1999.

Exports of high-value products (HVP) are up $1.3 billion from fiscal 1999, or 5.6%. By far, the largest gains are in red meats, up $900 million. The biggest customers for red meat have been Japan, South Korea, Russia, and Mexico. Hides and skins, poultry and vegetables posted $550 million in combined export earnings as well. Only nuts and preparations registered an export loss thus far, as almond sales to the EU plummeted.

The $30 billion-worth of U.S. agricultural imports are up 4.5% from fiscal 1999, due largely to competitive imports. This gain comes in spite of a 6% decline in June from May. Imports that have significantly increased include red meats (up $283 million), cashew nuts (up $123 million), wine and malt beverages (up $324 million), and rubber (up $98 million). Competitive imports were principally from developed countries-Canada, the EU, and Australia.