Feed Grain Supply Largest Since 1987-88

August 16, 2000

Feed grain production in 2000 is forecast at 287 million metric tons, about a 9 million ton increase from a month ago and 24 million from 1999. Feed grain supply in 2000-01 is forecast at 340 million tons, 7% more than 1999-2000. With increased corn supplies in 2000-01 and higher ending stocks, prices were reduced in USDA’s latest report. The forecast farm price for 2000-01 is $1.45-$1.85 per bushel, down from last month's $1.50-$1.90. In 1999-2000, the season average price received by farmers is expected to be $1.80.

Total feed grain use is projected at 274 million tons in 2000-01, 3% more that the previous year. Domestic use of 214 million tons will top the record 211 million expected in 1999-2000. Feed and residual use in 2000-01 is expected to total 158 million metric tons and account for 57% of total use. When converted to a September-August marketing year, feed and residual use for

the four feed grains plus wheat in 2000-01 is projected to total 164 million tons, 1% more than last month and essentially the same as in 1999-2000. Corn is estimated to account for 88% of the feed and residual use in 2000-01, up from 87% in 1999/2000.

Corn production in 2000 is forecast at a record 10.369 billion bushels, up 356 million from last month and 932 million above last year. This is the first survey-based forecast of the season and it reflects Aug.1 conditions. The average corn yield is forecast at a record 141.9 bushels per acre, compared with last month's trend-adjusted projection of 137 bushels and the actual 1999 yield of 133.8 bushels. The Aug.1 survey data indicate record level stalk and ear counts for the combined seven objective yield states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin).

With a record 2000 production expected and record use only partially offsetting these gains, projected ending stocks increased 207 million bushels from last month and is the highest since 1987-88. Forecast corn use was increased 125 million bushels from last month's forecast and is up 340 million bushels from the estimate for 1999-2000. Total use in 1999-2000 was increased this month by 25 million bushels because of expected increased exports.

The entire feed grain report is available at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/field/fds-bb/2000/fds0800.asc