USDA Still Expects Low Prices; Farmer Woes May Mean More Aid
April 9, 1999

Although USDA changed the outlook for prices very little in its supply and demand report issued today, analysts did increase the ending stocks for corn, indicating continued low prices and a large supply overhanging the market.  With corn, wheat and soybean prices expected to average well below last season's, the door is opened wider for yet more farmer aid from Congress.

The average price of corn for the marketing year that ends Aug. 31 remains at $1.90-2.10 per bushel.  The price for corn in
997-98  averaged $2.43 per bushel.  However, USDA reduced the expected feed and residual use from 5.7 billion bushels in last month's report to 5.63 billion in the April report.  Domestic use also was reduced, from 7.6 billion bushels to 7.48 billion leading to an increase in ending stocks Sept. 1 of 1.8 billion bushels compared to the ending stocks projection of 1.7 billion in the March report.

For wheat, the average price for the marketing year that ends May 31 remained at $2.65-$2.75 per bushel.  That compares to $3.38 per bushel in the 1997-98 marketing year.  With the wheat marketing season about over, none of the other projections changed from USDA's March report.

Soybeans fared somewhat better in the latest projections.  Prices now are expected to average $5.00-5.10 per bushel, still well below the $6.47 per bushel average for 1997-98.  The March report forecast prices at $4.95-5.15 per bushel for the 1998-99 marketing year that ends Aug. 31.

Increased soybean use was the reason for the better prices expected; total use was barely 2.5 billion bushels in the March report but was increased to 2.53 billion in today's report.  The increase was reflected in residual use.  Expected exports were lowered by 10 million bushels, however.  Prospective imports by the European Union and South Korea are the main reasons for the lower export outlook.