USDA forecasts ag exports at $49 billion for fiscal 1999. That’s $4.6 billion less than fiscal 1998 and $1.5 billion less than USDA projected in November. Weak world demand and large world supplies are blamed for the decline. Year-to-year declines are expected in all major markets except Mexico.
Soybean and soybean products should decline almost $3.5 billion from fiscal 1998. Both volume and prices have sharply reduced the expected U.S. cotton exports. A decline in poultry meat exports reflects reduced Russian imports and lower prices.
Other major export commodities are expected to record minor changes in value as declining prices are offset by increasing volume. Corn export volume should increase 17 percent to 44 million tons, but the value virtually is unchanged at $4.3 billion.
Agricultural imports should increase $1 billion from 1998 and reach $38 billion in fiscal 1999. Most of the increase comes in horticultural products. The ag trade surplus, expected to total $11 billion, is the lowest since 1987.