A new report says farmers worldwide must produce 40% more rice, wheat and other grains to meet the growing population between now and 2020. Sixty percent of the developing world's cereal imports likely will have to come from the United States, the report says.

The report, published by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) says policymakers now must begin minimizing the risk of food shortages. Developing countries will have to double cereal imports.

Per Pinstrup-Andersen, IFPRI's director general and a coauthor of the report, says poor countries risk losing out on the economic benefits of more open global trade. "International trade liberalization has to go hand in hand with national policy reforms, investments in the agriculture sector, access to developed country markets and the elimination of export subsidies in industrialized countries," he says.

A demand-driven "livestock revolution" also is underway, according to the report. Demand for meat is expected to double in the developing world by 2020. Developing countries likely will have to import eight times more meat in 2020 than they did in 1995. China alone could account for more than 40% of the increase in meat product demand, the report says.

The report also examines whether modern biotechnology can help provide food security. If focused on solving developing country problems, biotechnology may help farmers reduce production risks and increase productivity.

According to IFPRI's findings, using biotechnology in the developing world could make food grains more nutritious and help combat widespread nutrient deficiencies among the poor.

"World Food Prospects: Critical Issues for the Early Twenty-First Century" is the title of the report, and it is available from free from IFPRI. Call 202-862-5670 for more information.