USDA Publishes Positive Wheat Outlook
May 17, 1999
On the heels of last week's crop and supply and demand reports, USDA sees a positive outlook for wheat in the 1999-2000 marketing period. Crop conditions point to reasonably good yields, but production appears ready to decline this year because of lower acreage and because yields will not quite hit last year’s levels, so farm prices should improve.
Total U.S. wheat production is expected to total 2.24 billion bushels this year, a decline of about 12% from 1998. Total wheat includes winter wheat, durum and other spring wheat. For winter wheat, USDA projects a 1.61 billion bushel crop, 14% less than was produced last year.
A mild winter followed by generally favorable spring weather has pushed crop development slightly ahead of average, USDA notes in the report. An average of 43% of the crop was headed as of May 9 compared to the five year average of 36%.
With beginning stocks 34% larger than a year ago and steady year over year imports, the U.S. wheat supply for 1999-2000 should decline 2% to 3.31 billion bushels, the second largest since 1987-88. The projected farm price is $2.60-3.10 per bushel for 1999-2000 compared to a revised $2.65 per bushel for 1998-99.