In its first forecast for the 1999-2000 crop year, USDA finds wheat prices should increase only slightly while corn and soybean prices remain in the basement.  Yesterday's report also was the first projection for the upcoming winter wheat crop.  Production is expected to total 1.6 billion bushels, slightly less than last year.

Wheat production this year should total 2.25 billion bushels, a decline from 2.5 billion produced last year.  That improves 1999-2000 prices only slightly, however, from the estimated $2.65 per bushel for 1998-99 to $2.60-3.10 for the upcoming marketing season.  Ending stocks also decline, from 969 million bushels from last year's crop to 869 million for 1999-2000.

The corn crop this year also should be less than 1998 but not enough to help prices.  Total production now is forecast at 9.4 billion bushels compared to 9.8 billion last year.  But beginning stocks total 1.8 billion bushels compared to 1.3 billion last year, so farm prices should decline -- from $1.95-2.05 per bushel for 1998-99 to $1.80-2.20 for 1999-2000.

For soybeans, the news is no better.  Soybean production should increase from 2.7 billion bushels last year to 2.9 billion in 1999-2000.  That prospect shoves prices to farmers down, from an estimated $5.05 per bushel for the 1999 crop to only $3.95-4.75 for this year's crop.

Total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2000 should decline slightly from the record level expected this year, the report says.  A decline in beef production should begin in the second half of this year and continue through 2000 as inventories diminish and producers retail female stock for breeding.

Pork production also should decline next year; producers have indicated intentions to breed fewer pigs in the first part of this year, indicating that smaller inventories will be carried into 2000.

However, poultry production probably will increase in 2000, offsetting the decline in red meat production.  USDA says returns to producers have been favorable and are expected to encourage an expansion in both turkey and broiler production.