June 8, 1999

Hay buyers are finding prices significantly lower this year than in 1998, says a Purdue economist. Stocks May 1 were 14% larger than a year earlier, and prices have remained low. But prices have been increasing recently in response to greater use. Still, prospects for higher hay prices are dim. Mid-May alfalfa prices nationwide averaged $82.40 per ton compared to $108 in May 1998.

It's a hay-buyer's market and likely to stay that way for a while, says Dave Petritz. Hay prices are the lowest since 1991 and 1992. Nationally, hay stocks May 1 totaled 24.8 million tons, 14% more than a year earlier and the largest since 1992. In Indiana, stocks totaled 350,000 tons May 1, 7% greater than a year earlier, more than double the 1997 level and the largest May 1 stocks since 1991, Petritz said.

Because 1998 hay production increased nationwide, prices declined sharply last summer and didn't bounce back. "Even the typical seasonal rise between summer harvest and the peak winter feeding period did not occur due to the large supplies," Petritz says.

Prospects for 1999-2000 depend on weather that will affect quality and quantity. Indiana is expected to harvest 775,000 acres this year, 3% more than 1998; Kentucky producers expect to harvest about 3% more acres, while Ohio, Illinois and Michigan should harvest less. The Wisconsin projections equal last year's production.