June 22

U.S. agricultural exports have declined $4.7 billion or 14% so far in fiscal 1999 compared with 1998. Exports have trended down during the fiscal year, but imports have trended up. The U.S. agricultural trade balance now is $7.9 billion in fiscal 1999, a 37% decline from 1998.

Cumulative agricultural imports are about the same as last year, but April imports were 2% less than March. Exports of bulk commodities declined 19% year-to-year to $11.4 billion. Cotton and soybeans suffered the largest declines, soybeans down $1.7 billion and cotton down $804 million so far in 1999.

Wheat sales also are down on a year-to-year comparison even though sales increased substantially in April. The only notable gain among bulk commodities so far in this fiscal year is corn - up $268 million.

Lower prices have forced the value of wheat exports to decline despite larger volume. Wheat sales declined by more than $207 million to Asia and $109 million to the Middle East. Sales to North Africa and South Asia also are lower, but sales to South America and Southeast Asia increased.

The larger corn sales so far in this fiscal year are due to more demand in Latin America, especially Mexico where sales have increased $62 million and South Korea where sales are $151 million more than last year. Shipments to Japan, Canada and Taiwan, however, have declined. Export volumes of corn have increased a third over fiscal 1998.

Strong South American competition and record global oilseed production are blamed for a steep decline in soybean exports. Both prices and demand "have plummeted," says the USDA report from the Economic Research Service. Export value declined 33% and volume 16%.