June 11

USDA's latest look at winter wheat production shows 1.61 billion bushels are expected from this year's crop, a fractional decline from last month but 14% less than 1998 production. Based on conditions about June 1, the yield is expected to average 44.7 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels more than was expected in May. Acreage totals 36 million acres, a 1% decline from May 1.

In the supply and demand report, USDA projected 1999 total wheat production at 2.242 billion bushels, down slightly from the 2.245 billion expected in the May report. Expected exports for 1999-2000 total 1.15 billion bushels, and ending stocks should total 865 million bushels compared with the 869 million forecast last month. The farm price remains the same as the May projection: $2.60-3.10 per bushel.

Slightly lower beginning stocks for the corn marketing year, which begins Sept. 1, did nothing to improve prices for 1999-2000. It's still expected to average $1.80-2.20 per bushel. Beginning stocks had been projected to total 1.77 billion bushels in the May report; that was lowered to 1.72 billion in the report released early today. Exports remained at 9.4 billion bushels for 1999-2000.

For soybeans, USDA changed none of the projections in the May report. Production is expected to total 2.88 billion bushels, crush 1.64 billion, and ending stocks, 595 million bushels. Exports are expected to total 930 million bushels. Farmers are looking at prices on average of $3.95-4.75 per bushel in 1999-2000.