Imports Lag 1998 Levels

January 28, 2000

USDA reports that January-November agricultural exports were 7% less than the 1998 total for the same period. Cumulative imports increased 2%. That meant the trade surplus declined to $9.4 billion from $13 billion last year, a 28% difference.

November exports totaled $4.6 billion, $109 million more than October, and imports totaled $96 million more than the previous month. The November export value is about the same as a year earlier, but imports increased by $273 million.

A 16% increase in cumulative corn export value from 1998 to 1999 was due to larger volume, since average corn prices were 11% lower than a year earlier, the report noted. Export prices for corn were the lowest since 1987. Year-to-date sales to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan increased sharply as corn demand for feed use increased.

An increase in soybean volume from 18 million tons in 1998 to 20 million tons in 1999 was not enough to offset a 19% decline in soybean prices. The cumulative export value declined $317 million in the first 11 months of 1999.

High-value product exports were 5% lower than year-earlier at $29 billion. Except for red meat, vegetables and sugar products, the major high-value exports declined in value. There was a "fivefold plunge in poultry sales to Russia," the report said. The loss of high-value products to the European Union was most pronounced for hides, feeds and nuts.

"Again the dollar's competitiveness in U.S. HVP markets and against competitors turned worse in 1999," according to the report.

The U.S. Agricultural Trade Update is available on the Internet at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/trade/fau-bb/text/2000/fau37.asc