Kyoto Could Cost Farmers $20 Billion

January 18, 2000

The Kyoto Protocol, a treaty designed to reduce global warming, could cost U.S. farmers up to $20 billion more per year even though the premise of global warming may be faulty, a speaker at the American Farm Bureau Federation claimed. The more scientists learn about the climate, the more they learn they can't predict it, says Joseph Bast, president, The Heartland Institute.

"What we've got in the global warming debate is a small number of scientists and a small number of environmental activists who have teamed up with a small number of journalists and a growing number of politicians who see that this is a great way to raise money, scare people, pass legislation and increase their power," Bast told the American Farm Bureau Federation, meeting in Houston last week.

The more scientists learn about the climate, the more they realize they can't predict it, he added. Bast said there is a petition on the Internet signed by 17,000 scientists that says: "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases is causing heating of the earth's atmosphere or disruption of the climate."

Terry Francl, an AFBF senior economist, says historic scientific data show there is evidence that global cooling and warming trends are caused by solar events rather than human activity. "There's little, if anything, in fact or science that will support these assertions" such as predictions of "raging hurricanes" and "catastrophic changes" in the earth's climate.

Bast says complying with the protocol would increase U.S. farm expenses by at least $10 billion, if a 25 cents per gallon gasoline tax was imposed, and $20 billion if the gas tax was 50 cents. Farm income would decline 24-48%.

Any such increase in the gasoline tax, of course, would have to be approved by Congress, and there seems little prospect such a substantial hike would gain approval anytime soon. Moreover, many scientists do assert the truth of global warming. Just last week, a major report again stated a consensus that warming is occurring, and found that previously reported differences in atmospheric and ocean temperatures do not affect that conclusion.