More People Worldwide Have Adequate Food

December 8, 1999

A new USDA report says the share of people in the world who do not have access to adequate food has declined. However, the aggregate "masks variation in food security among regions, countries and income groups within countries." Food consumption in 30 or 67 developing countries likely will lag nutritional standards in 2009, the report says.

This year the food gap to maintain per capita consumption at 1996-98 levels in 67 low-income developing countries is estimated at nearly 13 million tons, about 2 million tons more than for 1998. About 400,000 tons of that increase came from adding North Korea to the analysis this year.

The gap to meet minimum nutritional requirements is estimated to be higher at 15 million tons. Still, the share of people who do not have access to adequate food levels is expected to decline from 34% in 1999 to 32% by 2009, according to the report.

In the projections, the availability of food aid is excluded, although the 67 countries included in the study have been or may become food aid recipients. "Therefore, depending upon future food aid availabilities, some or all of the projected food gaps can be eliminated," the analysts say.

The gap to maintain per capita consumption increases 37% to 17.4 million tons in 2009, and the nutritional gap expands 54% to more than 23 million tons. Food consumption should fall short of the nutritional requirement in 30 countries, while 44 countries are expected to face a decline in per capita consumption in 2009.

"Unequal purchasing power exacerbates food insecurity in the 67 countries," according to the report. "As would be expected, the estimated results show food consumption in the lowest income quintile to be much lower than that of the highest income quintile."

For example, food consumption by people in the lowest income quintile in the Latin American countries (the region with the most skewed income distribution) is estimated to equal only 79% of the minimum nutritional requirements this year compared with 126% in the highest income quintile.

As a whole, the "distribution gap" (the amount of food needed to increase consumption of each income group to the minimum nutritional requirement) is projected to widen 17% over the nesxt decade and exceed 33 million tons in 2009 for all 67 countries as a whole.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for about 50% of the food gap to maintain consumption and 70% of the nutritional gap of the 67 countries in 2009. Afghanistan, Bangladesh and North Korea account for all the nutritional food gaps in the Asian region. Per capita food consumption in the Latin American and Caribbean countries is expected to stagnate over the next decade. Per capita food consumption in North Africa, on average, is expected to remain above nutritional requirements during the coming decade.