Value of Ag Exports Decreased $1 Billion

December 1, 1999

Lower grain prices and stronger than expected grain export competition in August pulled down USDA's latest agricultural export forecast for fiscal year 2000 $1 billion to $49 billion, unchanged from fiscal 1999. The value of imports expected in 2000 totals $38 billion.

USDA's Economic Research Service says since August, expected export volume of wheat, corn and soybeans has been lowered a total of 5.4 million tons due to anticipated larger foreign production and increased export competition from several countries.

In addition, wheat still suffers from weak global demand. With ample supplies of grains, prices have been pressured lower and expected export value has followed with a $500 million reduction for wheat and a $300 million reduction for corn. Smaller U.S. soybean supplies have forced an increase in prices; expected export value, however, is unchanged from the August report.

The year-to-year increase in imports is attributed mainly to horticulture products that are increased $400 million both from the August forecast and from fiscal 1999. U.S. demand for fruits, juices, vegetables and wine should continue to increase, driven partly by the dollar's high purchasing power, ERS says.

A summary of the report, with tables, is on the Internet at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/trade/aes-bb/1999/aes24s.asc.