Global Warming Won't Be As Bad As Feared

September 8, 1999

A new study from the American Enterprise Institute claims research now suggests global warming will not be as harmful as once feared. Scientists have lowered their expectations of the magnitude of warming, ecologists believe "net primary productivity" may increase and economists have changed their expectations and see a mix of costs and benefits developing.

In 1989, he Environmental Protection Agency issued the first government report on global warming. It was based on models that predicted temperature increases of three to six degrees Celsius from the doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations. It also found that those changes would cause extensive, worldwide damage.

Now, says author Robert Mendelsohn, more precise research has produced an entirely different perspective on what climate change is likely to do to world economy and the quality of life. His book, The Greening of Global Warming, is published by the AEI Press.

The revised forecasts are attributable to the same fundamental source, says Mendelsohn – greater understanding of complex systems, both natural and economic. As natural scientists have gained a better appreciation of the dynamics of climate systems, they have found that a given increment in greenhouse gases produces a smaller effect on global temperatures than had been supposed.

Ecologists and economists have a better understanding of how ecosystems and economies will respond to climate changes; some of the changes actually may be beneficial and, at the least, modest changes likely will not be catastrophic.

The effects of warming will not be uniform around the world. Wealthy, industrialized countries in cool and temperate locations, such as the United States, likely will benefit; poor, less developed countries in hot, dry locations likely will be harmed.

Mendelsohn recommends that international negotiations focus not on strategies to mitigate warming but on how to compensate poorer countries for the losses they may experience in the future because of climate change.

To order a copy of the study, call 800/937-5557 between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m., Eastern time.