USDA Assessment Team Reports on Russia

October 19, 1999

An interagency technical-level team reports that Russia, with a poor harvest again this year, could face a shortfall of 2.0-3.5 million tons of food grains, 5.5-6.0 million tons of feed grains, 500,000 ton of protein meals and 250,000 tons of meat in the coming year. Without more imports, that could mean food shortages in certain regions and feed shortages that could lead to distress slaughter of animal herds.

In spite of a slightly larger grain crop, the food grain supply (wheat and rye) "could be severely constrained because of the extremely low carryover stocks from last year," the U.S. team reports. Although wheat production increased 3 million tons to 31 million tons this year over 1998, wheat quality is hard hit by this year's unfavorable weather. An estimated 55% of the crop is suitable for milling compared to nearly 75% last year.

The team believes Russia will import 2 million tons commercially from neighboring countries compared to 700,000 tons last year and may import 250,000 or more tons of wheat outside the former Soviet Union.

Total Russian feed grain supplies of feed wheat, corn and barley will total an estimated 39.5 million tons for the 1999-2000 marketing year. That is 10 million tons more than last year's low level of 26 million tons. But larger production is almost offset completely by sharply lower stocks that have declined to 1.5 million tons from nearly 10 million tons a year ago following a bumper 1997 crop.

Feed grain imports are expected to total 1.5-2.0 million tons compared to 1.3 million tons last year. This includes commercial imports of 1.0-1.5 million tons and aid deliveries under fiscal year 1999 programs by the United States and the European Union delivered during 1999-2000.

Russia's feed demand is expected to total 33 million tons, seed needs 8 million tons, industrial use 2 million tons and a minimal level of stocks at 2 million tons for a total feed grain needs projection of 45 million tons. Without additional imports, the shortfall will be 5.5 million tons.

Total supplies of oilseed meal this year are expected to total 1.5 million tons, a seven-year high, of which domestic sunflower seed meal production will represent about 1 million tons. Soybean meal production should be more than 240,000 tons and be supplemented by 200,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal due to arrive this fall.

Based on current levels of meat production, the team expects a total protein meal demand of 2 million tons and a resulting soybean meal deficit of about 500,000 tons in the coming year. To improve the feed to meat ratio, sufficient supplies of soybean meal are needed to encourage better rations and to allow poultry producers to expand flocks.

Meat consumption, now at half the level of a decade ago, may decline even further since supplies are 250,000 tons short of last year's already depressed levels. The USDA team expects a total supply of 5.25 million tons including 3.8 million tons of domestic production. To maintain the already low protein consumption level of 1998-99, Russia will need to supplement its meat supplies by an estimated 250,000 tons or experience further reduction in protein consumption.