Global Carbon Emissions Decline for First Time Since 1993

July 28,1999

Global emissions of carbon from the combustion of fossil fuels declined last year, the first decline since 1993, according to the Worldwatch Institute. Emissions declined 0.5% to 6.32 billion tons while the world economy expanded 2.5%.

The decline in emissions with an expanding world economy suggests an accelerated "de-linking" of economic expansion from carbon emissions, says Worldwatch, undercutting arguments that reducing emissions will damage the economy. During the past two years, the global economy has grown by 6.8% while carbon emissions held steady, leading to a 6.4% decline in the amount of carbon emissions required to produce $1,000 of income.

"This turn marks the first pause in the carbon emissions escalator since economic collapse cut emissions in central Europe dramatically in the early 1900s," says Worldwatch. "But unlike that reduction or the previous decline connected with the oil crises of the 1970s, the latest downturn did not result from a major economic disruption." But it's not clear yet how long the new trend will last.

The decline in emissions stems in part from improved energy efficiency and from declining coal use, according to Worldwatch, spurred by new efficiency standards and the removal of energy subsidies. Also much of the economic growth of the last two years has come in information technologies and services, sectors that are not major energy users.

It may be less difficult to slow global warming under the Kyoto Protocol that has been assumed by some industry groups given the emissions decline, says Worldwatch. But to reach the Kyoto targets and reduce emissions in developing countries, accelerated adoption of new energy technologies will be needed.

Recent double-digit growth rates for solar and wind technologies and the imminent commercialization of hydrogen fuel cells herald a new, less carbon intensive energy system in the early 21^st century. "Already the U.S. Department of Energy's 1999 projection that global carbon emissions will grow at a 1.3% annually through 2010 is off track," according to Worldwatch. "It is likely that government forecasters and scientific bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will now have to revise their projections downward."