Fiscal 2000 Ag Exports to Bounce Back to $50 Billion

August 31, 1999

USDA says fiscal 2000 agricultural exports should increase to $50 billion, 2% more than the fiscal 1999 forecast of $49 billion. Worldwide economic growth, especially in Asia, should drive the 2000 total.

Expected imports should reach $38 billion in fiscal 2000, 1% more than the $37.5 billion expected for 1999. The trade surplus then increases to $12 billion, a 4% gain.

The expected export increase reflects not only higher global economic growth but also reduced export competition for some commodities, according to USDA. However, in general, continued low prices limit growth in export value.

Projected livestock product exports show the largest gain in value, 5%, to $10.8 billion as prices increase modestly.

The largest volume increase is forecast for soybeans, 15%, but total oilseed and product value increases only 1%. Cotton export volume is projected to increase sharply but prices remain very weak, the report says. Additional wheat exports are offset by a decline in corn volume, leaving grain exports unchanged.

Horticultural products are expected to increase 2% in export value. Import increases reflect a continued U.S. economic growth and attractive commodity prices for imported products. Fiscal 2000 forecasts increase imports of red meats to $3.1 billion, horticultural products to $15.3 billion and coffee to $3 billion.

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